Last night I watched BBC Horizon`s special on pandemic avian flu.
It was sobering viewing.
There are going to be major ethical dilemmas as to whom will receive anti-viral and intensive care and who won`t. It seems likely that the over 60s are at lesser risk of dying anyway,due to the way their immune systems are likely to handle cytokine storms, and some of the medical experts interviewed expressed opinions that the group which should be targeted for medical support in the event of infection should be basically "socially productive adults" aged 20 to 50, in whom society has invested education and training. Young children and the elderly are likely to be out of the loop.
Isolation for up to 6 months till appropriate vaccines are developed may be necessary, and how many folk have food, water, medication and fuel stockpiled for that long ? The government won`t be providing it, that`s for sure. People need to prepare, even on a basic level, even if only for a few weeks` supplies.
The programme interviewed one USA couple who showed the seriously impressive preparations they had made, including generators, batteries etc . I couldn`t help thinking that once the Pandemic hits, their neighbours will now know about their stockpile and they are likely to get looted in the panic as food , water and toiletries become in short supply.
Shops will run out, and distribution networks could be very severely disrupted due to quarantines, staff illnesses and people staying at home for fear of infection .
It made me stop and think. I think I will be seriously reviewing my preparedness plans.
Information about the program, and some of the dilemmas can be found here
Showing posts with label Bird Flu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bird Flu. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Ravens and Bird Flu
As the spectre of avian flu grows ever bigger and closer to Britain, the ravens at the Tower of London have been taken indoors and placed in special aviaries in order to safeguard the Kingdom.......... this is when you know things are getting serious !
See here for details
See here for details
Saturday, February 18, 2006
Avian Flu in Europe
The first cases of Bird flu have hit France and Germany this week.
Last week it was Italy and Greece.
The inexorable spread to Britain is imminent.
It has only affected wild birds in Europe, not domestic pouultry, for which we must be thankful, but it may well only be a matter of time before free-range hens will be a thing of the past.
Last week it was Italy and Greece.
The inexorable spread to Britain is imminent.
It has only affected wild birds in Europe, not domestic pouultry, for which we must be thankful, but it may well only be a matter of time before free-range hens will be a thing of the past.
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
Thoughts About Avian Flu
The news this morning that birds infected with Avian flu have been found in Greece as well as in Turkey means that with the autumnal migration, there is at least a possibility that infected birds may well end up in Britain in due course.
While the situation stays like this, there will be problems in terms of keeping poultry safe from infection, but apart from poultry workers there may not be much of a threat to other people.
If and when the virus mutates enough, however, and comes into contact with a human already suffering from flu, then we have real problems.
We may be lucky and the mutated virus may not be significantly worse than normal flu - or it could be deadly.
The humans infected with avian flu so far seem to have had a ~50% mortality rate.
There is not enough Tamiflu to go round even a small fraction of the British population, and more is unlikely to be forthcoming quickly as the raw ingredient for Tamiflu is Chinese Star Anise, which is in very short supply, and the manufacturing process is complex and delicate, taking a year from start to finish.
Most online stockists are running out, and are charging exorbitant prices of up to £100 for one course of treatment.
Tamiflu is not a cure, but it does ameliorate symptoms in some people.
More worrying is that the Government is busy stocking up on Tamiflu whereas there have already been cases in Vietnam of the avian flu mutating to a form against which Tamiflu is ineffective. The other drug which can help is a prescription-only drug called Relenza, and the availability and price of this is also very variable. It has not been stockpiled to any significant extent by the Government.
Ho hum.
Houston, we have a problem.......
An extremely useful and informative medical guide to preparing for, and caring for affected people in an epidemic can be found here .
Those of a inquiring mind may wish to check out this, this and this .
If neither Relenza nor Tamiflu are available or work against a human strain of avian flu, Sambucol may just possibly be of some help. It has shown an effect against a turkey strain of influenza in laboratory studies, although that does not mean it will necessarily work in practice in an avian flu affecting humans.
Please note I am not in any way advocating the use of Sambucol nor am I recommending it.
I am simply providing information which I have found on the web.
Another source raises some questions/concerns about the use of Sambucol for avian flu, however.
Another interesting (but slanted towards a rural/gun-owning readership) resource about surviving a worst-case scenario outbreak of human/avian flu can be found at http://www.survivalblog.com/ filed under Sunday October 16th 2005.
While the situation stays like this, there will be problems in terms of keeping poultry safe from infection, but apart from poultry workers there may not be much of a threat to other people.
If and when the virus mutates enough, however, and comes into contact with a human already suffering from flu, then we have real problems.
We may be lucky and the mutated virus may not be significantly worse than normal flu - or it could be deadly.
The humans infected with avian flu so far seem to have had a ~50% mortality rate.
There is not enough Tamiflu to go round even a small fraction of the British population, and more is unlikely to be forthcoming quickly as the raw ingredient for Tamiflu is Chinese Star Anise, which is in very short supply, and the manufacturing process is complex and delicate, taking a year from start to finish.
Most online stockists are running out, and are charging exorbitant prices of up to £100 for one course of treatment.
Tamiflu is not a cure, but it does ameliorate symptoms in some people.
More worrying is that the Government is busy stocking up on Tamiflu whereas there have already been cases in Vietnam of the avian flu mutating to a form against which Tamiflu is ineffective. The other drug which can help is a prescription-only drug called Relenza, and the availability and price of this is also very variable. It has not been stockpiled to any significant extent by the Government.
Ho hum.
Houston, we have a problem.......
An extremely useful and informative medical guide to preparing for, and caring for affected people in an epidemic can be found here .
Those of a inquiring mind may wish to check out this, this and this .
If neither Relenza nor Tamiflu are available or work against a human strain of avian flu, Sambucol may just possibly be of some help. It has shown an effect against a turkey strain of influenza in laboratory studies, although that does not mean it will necessarily work in practice in an avian flu affecting humans.
Please note I am not in any way advocating the use of Sambucol nor am I recommending it.
I am simply providing information which I have found on the web.
Another source raises some questions/concerns about the use of Sambucol for avian flu, however.
Another interesting (but slanted towards a rural/gun-owning readership) resource about surviving a worst-case scenario outbreak of human/avian flu can be found at http://www.survivalblog.com/ filed under Sunday October 16th 2005.
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